Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 28 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 25 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Snapfire
SumaiL · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
490 picks · 323 bans
Doom
454 picks · 991 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 860 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 938 bans
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1011 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total65% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Entity 35%Team Aster 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:49.
Game 2prediction correct31:23
Entity 35%Team Aster 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 65%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2