The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 14 games
Snapfire
Armel · 14 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
455 picks · 221 bans
Techies
454 picks · 486 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 654 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 600 bans
Morphling
331 picks · 698 bans
Timbersaw
330 picks · 767 bans
Undying
309 picks · 517 bans
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 27%
Hero pool strength51% Entity
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total60% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Entity 40%Team Secret 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:03.
Game 2prediction correct11:29
Entity 40%Team Secret 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 60%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2