BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
376 picks · 361 bans
Tusk
345 picks · 326 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 578 bans
Marci
251 picks · 493 bans
Undying
243 picks · 452 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 599 bans
Snapfire
229 picks · 131 bans
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 39%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
Entity 33%Team Spirit 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:29.
Game 2prediction correct20:30
Entity 33%Team Spirit 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2