ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 30 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 26 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 23 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 20 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 550 bans
Puck
518 picks · 1034 bans
Dawnbreaker
451 picks · 581 bans
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
Snapfire
366 picks · 195 bans
Winter Wyvern
359 picks · 388 bans
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
Razor
315 picks · 621 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 48%
Hero pool strength61% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:44
Entity 56%Thunder Awaken 44%
The model gave 56% on Entity — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 48:31.
Game 2prediction missed10:24
Entity 56%Thunder Awaken 44%
The model gave 56% on Entity — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 26:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 56%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2