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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 10 games
70%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
416 picks · 674 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 631 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
389 picks · 317 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
372 picks · 822 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
372 picks · 443 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 584 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total55% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
Entity 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:40.
Game 2prediction correct29:30
Entity 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 55%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2