Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Watson · 1 game
Elder Titan
Fishman · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kataomi · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
No[o]ne · 1 game
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 50 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 32 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
379 picks · 648 bans
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 364 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 445 bans
Weaver
303 picks · 558 bans
Hoodwink
291 picks · 188 bans
Rubick
291 picks · 180 bans
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 48%
Hero pool strength65% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 7
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:28
Entity 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:32.
Game 2prediction missed29:40
Entity 52%Tundra Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 53:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2