Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ERTENKELEMwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
bad juju teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ERTENKELEM
No games played over 6 months.
bad juju team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
775 picks · 506 bans
Tiny
550 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 576 bans
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 653 bans
Snapfire
398 picks · 285 bans
Death Prophet
386 picks · 713 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 789 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% ERTENKELEM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% bad juju team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:26
ERTENKELEM 46%bad juju team 54%
The model gave 54% on bad juju team — the game was taken by ERTENKELEM in 41:05.
Game 2prediction missed
ERTENKELEM 46%bad juju team 54%
The model gave 54% on bad juju team — the game was taken by ERTENKELEM.
Model check result
Model favoritebad juju team · 54%
Series resultERTENKELEM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2