Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ERTENKELEMloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Sexywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ERTENKELEM
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
Shadow Demon
sunset · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Muka · 1 game
Tusk
Muka · 1 game
Team Sexy
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
7jesu · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Rikioften banned
9Class · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
785 picks · 543 bans
Tiny
566 picks · 397 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 441 bans
Nature's Prophet
439 picks · 723 bans
Death Prophet
411 picks · 793 bans
Snapfire
404 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
361 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% ERTENKELEM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:20
ERTENKELEM 47%Team Sexy 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 16:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enchantresssunset
LeshracMoonlight
TuskMuka
Anti-Mage7jesu
55% · 39 games
MagnusNefrit
53% · 249 games
Rubick9Class
32% · 53 games
LichHduo
Game 2prediction correct15:41
ERTENKELEM 43%Team Sexy 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubicksunset
Night StalkerNefrit
SilencerMuka
Monkey King7jesu
61% · 51 game
Storm SpiritMoonlight
43% · 31 game
LichHduo
66% · 117 games
Disruptor9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 57%
Series resultTeam Sexy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2