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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 40 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
asdekor_r · 25 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 21 game
57%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 30 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 28 games
39%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
54%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
61%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
687 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
561 picks · 602 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 240 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 664 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1122 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
379 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 355 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
338 picks · 384 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total65% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
eSpoiled 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
47% · 314 games54% · 200 games
Marcizvёzd
Marci
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightssnovv1
54% · 286 games48% · 298 games
Marsмистер мораль
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
47% · 361 game51% · 335 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskWein
49% · 364 games48% · 380 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
54% · 112 games
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct34:16
eSpoiled 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 47:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladessnovv1
46% · 332 games61% · 17 games
Phantom Lancerzvёzd
Phantom Lancer
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
50% · 413 games46% · 225 games
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Queen of Pain
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
49% · 329 games53% · 435 games
Beastmasterмистер мораль
Beastmaster
Ringmaster
RingmasterWein
52% · 223 games46% · 212 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
55% · 408 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed9:29
eSpoiled 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 34:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
Huskardualrazee
54% · 69 games57% · 257 games
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
Nature's Prophet
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
50% · 340 games46% · 330 games
Dragon Knightzvёzd
Dragon Knight
Jakiro
JakiroWein
45% · 304 games44% · 147 games
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Tusk
Tuskasdekor_r
50% · 381 game53% · 292 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
52% · 68 games
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 65%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3