European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Tusk
Wein · 8 games
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 6 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 5 games
Sven
ssnovv1 · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 5 games
Drow Ranger
ssnovv1 · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 4 games
Aim Possible
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Dazzle
Aidar · 4 games
Warlock
Aidar · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 2 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 2 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Leshrac
Rain · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
527 picks · 594 bans
Ringmaster
479 picks · 241 bans
Shadow Shaman
436 picks · 478 bans
Jakiro
422 picks · 354 bans
Terrorblade
394 picks · 842 bans
Tusk
386 picks · 366 bans
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength55% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:15
eSpoiled 61%Aim Possible 39%
The model gave 61% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerssnovv1
Gyrocopterchempik
MarciWein
Storm SpiritRain
Batriderasdekor_r
WarlockAidar
Game 2prediction correct22:8
eSpoiled 61%Aim Possible 39%
The model gave 61% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistssnovv1
Dragon KnightRain
Chenasdekor_r
Templar Assassinchempik
BatriderWein
AbaddonAidar
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 67%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2