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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 14 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 13 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
30%

Ban9PivoSamogon

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
ififall · 4 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
67%
Pudge
Pudge
not me · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
zvёzd · 2 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
VaniLLl · 2 games
100%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
VaniLLl · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
zvёzd · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
499 picks · 537 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
387 picks · 228 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 411 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 876 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 922 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 478 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 290 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
291 picks · 619 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Ban9PivoSamogon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Ban9PivoSamogon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:17
eSpoiled 39%Ban9PivoSamogon 61%
The model gave 61% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcissnovv1
52% · 106 games48% · 84 games
Hoodwinkzvёzd
Hoodwink
Beastmaster
BeastmastermeLes
51% · 203 games51% · 147 games
Shadow Fiendряф^^
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
56% · 74 games47% · 45 games
Slardarififall
Slardar
Bane
BaneWein
58% · 86 games40% · 111 games
Ringmasternot me
Ringmaster
44% · 82 games
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct30:40
eSpoiled 40%Ban9PivoSamogon 60%
The model gave 60% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinssnovv1
51% · 187 games51% · 193 games
Nature's Prophetряф^^
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmastermeLes
54% · 308 games60% · 304 games
Bristlebackififall
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderWein
49% · 264 games52% · 138 games
Marcizvёzd
Marci
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
39% · 86 games49% · 92 games
SnapfireVaniLLl
Snapfire
44% · 118 games
Windrangernot me
Windranger
Game 3prediction correct18:39
eSpoiled 37%Ban9PivoSamogon 63%
The model gave 63% on Ban9PivoSamogon — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunassnovv1
50% · 104 games56% · 36 games
Ursazvёzd
Ursa
Undying
UndyingmeLes
46% · 105 games55% · 165 games
Doomififall
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
46% · 146 games63% · 76 games
Earthshakerряф^^
Earthshaker
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
40% · 86 games42% · 56 games
Disruptornot me
Disruptor
56% · 108 games
PugnaVaniLLl
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteBan9PivoSamogon · 68%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3