FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DdominatorSSSSS4loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 14 games
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 12 games
Tusk
Wein · 12 games
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 11 games
Pugna
asdekor_r · 11 games
dominatorSSSSS4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
289 picks · 667 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 107 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
Dawnbreaker
252 picks · 621 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 520 bans
Marci
244 picks · 532 bans
Batrider
240 picks · 676 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% dominatorSSSSS4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
eSpoiled 62%dominatorSSSSS4 38%
The model gave 62% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 62%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1