The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 3 games
Windranger
Wein · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 1 game
Bane
asdekor_r · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
Wein · 1 game
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 1 game
Muerta
ssnovv1 · 1 game
Kalmychata
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
480 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 539 bans
Ringmaster
442 picks · 222 bans
Terrorblade
348 picks · 664 bans
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 454 bans
Ancient Apparition
298 picks · 682 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 235 bans
Windranger
284 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:23
eSpoiled 51%Kalmychata 49%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerssnovv1
Svenrincyq
WindrangerWein
MarsfortniteMan
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
Death ProphetMirage
47% · 39 games
Shadow ShamanPonlo
50% · 38 games
Omniknightaik
Game 2prediction missed9:25
eSpoiled 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 29:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursassnovv1
Svenrincyq
WindrangerWein
Shadow FiendMirage
Oracleasdekor_r
SlardarfortniteMan
40% · 90 games
Batrideraik
50% · 45 games
Chaos KnightPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 51%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2