DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 33 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 19 games
Warlock
asdekor_r · 19 games
Tusk
Wein · 18 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
Tiny
Niku · 20 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 15 games
Pucksignature
Niku · 13 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
Underlordoften banned
pma · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
566 picks · 286 bans
Disruptor
506 picks · 509 bans
Puck
378 picks · 1040 bans
Pugna
338 picks · 387 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 167 bans
Warlock
333 picks · 154 bans
Mars
332 picks · 562 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:28
eSpoiled 61%Natus Vincere Junior 39%
The model gave 61% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonssnovv1
Troll Warlordrubikon155
Void SpiritDifference
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Warlockasdekor_r
Puckgbc
Hoodwinkmrls
JakiroHyugadoto
51% · 255 games
TuskGothic-
Game 2prediction correct43:17
eSpoiled 60%Natus Vincere Junior 40%
The model gave 60% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Venomancerkrol9ash
SlardarDifference
Faceless Voidrubikon155
Hoodwinkmrls
Earthshakergbc
Enchantressasdekor_r
BatriderHyugadoto
little data
Spirit BreakerGothic-
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 72%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2