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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marci
Wein · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 6 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 4 games
100%

One Move

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Eyesight · 19 games
37%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 19 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 18 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
29%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 16 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
not me · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
505 picks · 541 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 426 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 368 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 509 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 703 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
303 picks · 554 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
302 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 434 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:17
eSpoiled 29%One Move 71%
The model gave 71% on One Move — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladessnovv1
45% · 222 games52% · 94 games
Shadow FiendKiritych
Shadow Fiend
Tusk
TuskWein
48% · 293 games59% · 152 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Bane
Baneasdekor_r
46% · 60 games54% · 91 game
Undyinglaise
Undying
56% · 127 games
Lionsayuw
Lion
49% · 111 games
AbaddonFishman
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct11:29
eSpoiled 32%One Move 68%
The model gave 68% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
49% · 99 games49% · 69 games
Nature's ProphetKiritych
Nature's Prophet
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
62% · 96 games44% · 95 games
Storm SpiritDifference
Storm Spirit
Marci
MarciWein
53% · 151 game40% · 71 game
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
Centaur Warrunner
41% · 27 games
UndyingFishman
Undying
51% · 84 games
Shadow Shamansayuw
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct11:12
eSpoiled 30%One Move 70%
The model gave 70% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
49% · 257 games44% · 125 games
MorphlingKiritych
Morphling
Dark Willow
Dark WillowWein
44% · 252 games42% · 219 games
Beastmasterlaise
Beastmaster
Bane
Baneasdekor_r
59% · 51 game52% · 55 games
Void SpiritDifference
Void Spirit
61% · 58 games
UndyingFishman
Undying
56% · 103 games
Lionsayuw
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 85%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3