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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 38 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 25 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 20 games
80%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 20 games
55%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 26 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 21 game
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 14 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nande · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
655 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
563 picks · 569 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
415 picks · 221 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1154 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 633 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
357 picks · 398 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 263 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
353 picks · 158 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:35
eSpoiled 54%Pipsqueak+4 46%
The model gave 54% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 50:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSmiling Knight
51% · 150 games46% · 247 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDifference
45% · 280 games51% · 221 game
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
46% · 285 games48% · 168 games
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonmrls
47% · 260 games55% · 236 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
65% · 103 games
ChenKidaro
Chen
Game 2prediction correct30:15
eSpoiled 56%Pipsqueak+4 44%
The model gave 56% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherssnovv1
56% · 43 games53% · 150 games
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDifference
57% · 92 games54% · 34 games
HuskarNande
Huskar
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntermrls
53% · 116 games41% · 22 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
47% · 230 games43% · 135 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
43% · 140 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed13:28
eSpoiled 51%Pipsqueak+4 49%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonssnovv1
46% · 151 game51% · 101 game
TinkerCopy
Tinker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDifference
55% · 153 games47% · 182 games
MarsNande
Mars
Tusk
Tuskmrls
48% · 218 games51% · 118 games
Night StalkerPalantimos
Night Stalker
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
49% · 240 games52% · 255 games
SnapfireEkki
Snapfire
51% · 106 games
DazzleKidaro
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 59%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3