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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 7 games
57%
Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 6 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ssnovv1 · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 3 games
67%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 27 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 20 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 14 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 11 games
73%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
55%
Silencer
Silencer
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 602 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
470 picks · 237 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
462 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
371 picks · 770 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 512 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
342 picks · 790 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
329 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
317 picks · 347 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:37
eSpoiled 44%Runa Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingssnovv1
48% · 200 games47% · 143 games
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Templar Assassin
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
48% · 248 games46% · 143 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
56% · 170 games49% · 140 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
59% · 83 games
Naga SirenHduo
Naga Siren
46% · 109 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed48:27
eSpoiled 44%Runa Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenssnovv1
49% · 103 games51% · 62 games
AbaddonShigetsu
Abaddon
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
49% · 138 games48% · 55 games
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderWein
46% · 250 games54% · 140 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
61% · 59 games
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Ancient Apparition
47% · 175 games
Tuskqueezy
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct16:26
eSpoiled 44%Runa Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 42:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerssnovv1
47% · 48 games51% · 10 games
Death Prophetnicky`cool
Death Prophet
Windranger
WindrangerWein
46% · 172 games51% · 44 games
AlchemistShigetsu
Alchemist
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
56% · 122 games44% · 145 games
PangolierAlberkaaa
Pangolier
53% · 81 game
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
55% · 62 games
Shadow DemonHduo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 63%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3