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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Publicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 42 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 25 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 25 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 21 game
81%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 21 game
57%

Team Public

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shad · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
mangekyou · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
692 picks · 336 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 610 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
470 picks · 250 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 1133 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 670 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
392 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
366 picks · 370 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
339 picks · 388 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
eSpoiled 60%Team Public 40%
The model gave 60% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 47:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinssnovv1
50% · 261 game43% · 253 games
TerrorbladeShad
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
45% · 156 games50% · 139 games
Timbersawmangekyou
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderWein
49% · 374 games51% · 186 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
57% · 232 games53% · 214 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
50% · 231 game
HoodwinkJeezy
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed9:25
eSpoiled 60%Team Public 40%
The model gave 60% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Team Public in 51:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
51% · 187 games52% · 150 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
52% · 403 games54% · 279 games
Dragon Knightmangekyou
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
DisruptorWein
49% · 215 games45% · 195 games
TimbersawAdzantick
Timbersaw
Pugna
Pugnaasdekor_r
48% · 287 games49% · 235 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
51% · 233 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct27:7
eSpoiled 61%Team Public 39%
The model gave 61% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightdualrazee
50% · 370 games53% · 35 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Tidehunter
Tidehunterssnovv1
54% · 155 games43% · 158 games
AbaddonShad
Abaddon
Snapfire
SnapfireWein
48% · 284 games41% · 272 games
PuckAdzantick
Puck
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
66% · 138 games53% · 213 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
44% · 269 games
JakiroPuppey
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 70%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3