CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tealoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 28 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 18 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 7 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 6 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
532 picks · 275 bans
Disruptor
490 picks · 495 bans
Puck
373 picks · 1009 bans
Pugna
333 picks · 380 bans
Warlock
314 picks · 147 bans
Hoodwink
311 picks · 151 bans
Mars
311 picks · 530 bans
Earthshaker
304 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:20
eSpoiled 51%Team Tea 49%
The model gave 51% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautssnovv1
Storm SpiritWorick
Queen of PainDifference
MarciShigetsu
Snapfireasdekor_r
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Tuskmrls
WarlockSoNNeikO
56% · 235 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Game 2prediction missed39:17
eSpoiled 50%Team Tea 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenssnovv1
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Ember SpiritDifference
Monkey KingWorick
Warlockasdekor_r
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Snapfiremrls
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
39% · 26 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 51%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2