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CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Teawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 31 game
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
54%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
61%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 18 games
78%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 10 games
90%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 7 games
86%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 7 games
14%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 6 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
562 picks · 286 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
505 picks · 507 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
377 picks · 1037 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
335 picks · 386 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
333 picks · 163 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 556 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
330 picks · 152 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
315 picks · 237 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tea
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total55% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:24
eSpoiled 44%Team Tea 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenssnovv1
47% · 107 games56% · 33 games
Anti-MageShigetsu
Anti-Mage
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDifference
52% · 237 games51% · 122 games
MarciCloud
Marci
Snapfire
Snapfiremrls
45% · 291 game57% · 177 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
53% · 183 games46% · 195 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
47% · 291 game
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed30:22
eSpoiled 47%Team Tea 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackssnovv1
51% · 341 game49% · 212 games
AbaddonShigetsu
Abaddon
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
51% · 272 games43% · 394 games
PangolierCloud
Pangolier
Tusk
Tuskmrls
49% · 379 games49% · 398 games
BeastmasterWorick
Beastmaster
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
49% · 220 games54% · 124 games
BanedEsire
Bane
55% · 84 games
DazzleSoNNeikO
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct4:19
eSpoiled 49%Team Tea 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 20:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
55% · 197 games42% · 86 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Leshrac
LeshracDifference
52% · 136 games46% · 335 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
53% · 278 games46% · 167 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Tusk
Tuskmrls
52% · 377 games45% · 210 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
57% · 190 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 55%
Series resultTeam Tea 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3