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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 1:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Tealoss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 43 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 29 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 27 games
52%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 23 games
39%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
xn丶e · 18 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 12 games
50%
Pudge
Pudge
OneJey · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
713 picks · 345 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 629 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
497 picks · 255 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 1167 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
405 picks · 255 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 685 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
392 picks · 403 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
349 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Team Tea
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total55% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
eSpoiled 45%Team Tea 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 55%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1