CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 27 games
Disruptor
Wein · 23 games
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 22 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
Yellow Submarine
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Snapfire
mrls · 20 games
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 19 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
435 picks · 405 bans
Snapfire
415 picks · 210 bans
Puck
347 picks · 911 bans
Pugna
325 picks · 366 bans
Warlock
289 picks · 143 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 226 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 668 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 844 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total57% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:26
eSpoiled 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Faceless Voidbottega
Void SpiritDifference
Ember SpiritMirele
SnapfireWein
Beastmasterlaise
Warlockasdekor_r
RingmasterXakoda
47% · 192 games
Tinysayuw
Game 2prediction correct26:26
eSpoiled 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusassnovv1
Anti-Magebottega
Storm SpiritDifference
Faceless VoidMirele
Chenasdekor_r
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
JakiroWein
WarlockXakoda
36% · 145 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 57%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2