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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 7 games
57%
Sven
Sven
ssnovv1 · 5 games
40%
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
33%

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 24 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 23 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
541 picks · 607 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
486 picks · 244 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
432 picks · 475 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
430 picks · 377 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
405 picks · 848 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 362 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
381 picks · 553 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 533 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:9
eSpoiled 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordssnovv1
54% · 40 games42% · 50 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWein
53% · 101 game51% · 81 game
SvenNande
Sven
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
57% · 125 games49% · 27 games
Death ProphetNefrit
Death Prophet
42% · 74 games
Centaur Warrunneryamich
Centaur Warrunner
42% · 34 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct14:29
eSpoiled 42%Zero Tenacity 58%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
48% · 159 games44% · 109 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Bane
Baneasdekor_r
58% · 33 games47% · 86 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanWein
55% · 117 games49% · 29 games
Death ProphetNefrit
Death Prophet
50% · 80 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
44% · 5 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Game 3prediction correct22:27
eSpoiled 42%Zero Tenacity 58%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
54% · 87 games44% · 142 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
58% · 184 games50% · 165 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Tusk
TuskWein
49% · 254 games42% · 24 games
AxeNefrit
Axe
46% · 194 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
little data
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 70%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3