DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
Techies
Michael · 4 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
StingeR · 4 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 651 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
381 picks · 613 bans
Techies
377 picks · 307 bans
Batrider
360 picks · 782 bans
Tiny
353 picks · 404 bans
Vengeful Spirit
351 picks · 352 bans
Hoodwink
334 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:33
Estar Backs 47%beastcoast 53%
The model gave 53% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 24:01.
Game 2prediction correct14:48
Estar Backs 47%beastcoast 53%
The model gave 53% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:51.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 53%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2