DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BCBreeki Cheekiwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 11 games
Jakiro
Accel · 8 games
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 6 games
Tiny
payk · 5 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknightoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 3 games
Breeki Cheeki
Slardaroften banned
ChodΣX · 6 games
Clockwerk
OneJey · 5 games
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 4 games
Magnus
OneJey · 4 games
Muerta
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 563 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 412 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 411 bans
Phoenix
464 picks · 523 bans
Hoodwink
455 picks · 228 bans
Warlock
400 picks · 247 bans
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1029 bans
Puck
386 picks · 900 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Breeki Cheeki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Breeki Cheeki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:27
Estar Backs 47%Breeki Cheeki 53%
The model gave 53% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezpayk
BristlebackChodΣX
TidehunterVitaly
UrsaDarkLord^
ClockwerkYadomi
Tinyспортик
54% · 53 games
Keeper of the LightOneJey
50% · 61 game
Rubickasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct8:28
Estar Backs 46%Breeki Cheeki 54%
The model gave 54% on Breeki Cheeki — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertapayk
UnderlordChodΣX
BrewmasterVitaly
Ember Spiritспортик
ClockwerkYadomi
Monkey KingDarkLord^
56% · 43 games
Keeper of the LightOneJey
46% · 80 games
Rubickasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteBreeki Cheeki · 54%
Series resultBreeki Cheeki 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2