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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hokoriloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 10 games
20%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Accel · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
payk · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
75%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 4 games
25%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
100%

Hokori

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 3 games
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
600 picks · 366 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
490 picks · 579 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
487 picks · 262 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 386 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
403 picks · 553 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 913 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 845 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
324 picks · 276 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:28
Estar Backs 53%Hokori 47%
The model gave 53% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyParker
49% · 283 games55% · 228 games
WindrangerLumière
Windranger
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerpayk
44% · 88 games62% · 127 games
LargoVitaly
Largo
Tusk
TuskYadomi
44% · 311 games47% · 97 games
Skywrath MageAsao
Skywrath Mage
54% · 230 games
AxeGardick
Axe
Game 2prediction missed18:34
Estar Backs 55%Hokori 45%
The model gave 55% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Hokori in 55:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeParker
50% · 78 games50% · 67 games
LunaLumière
Luna
Mars
Marspayk
49% · 115 games42% · 53 games
EnigmaVitaly
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixYadomi
51% · 131 game51% · 134 games
EnchantressGardick
Enchantress
57% · 70 games
Nyx AssassinAsao
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct31:10
Estar Backs 54%Hokori 46%
The model gave 54% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyParker
46% · 263 games51% · 262 games
Shadow FiendLumière
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpayk
45% · 194 games49% · 250 games
BristlebackVitaly
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixYadomi
48% · 191 game59% · 89 games
Nyx AssassinAsao
Nyx Assassin
56% · 47 games
Winter WyvernGardick
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 60%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3