?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 12 games
17%
Tiny
Tinysignature
payk · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Accel · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
bsK7- · 6 games
83%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 5 games
60%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
40%

Hokori

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Genek · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Lumière · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
634 picks · 436 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
571 picks · 316 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 584 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 390 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
442 picks · 655 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
354 picks · 527 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 1035 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 298 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:21
Estar Backs 54%Hokori 46%
The model gave 54% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyParker
45% · 192 games49% · 203 games
DoomLumière
Doom
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendS1RENM
53% · 161 game47% · 106 games
Dark SeerVitaly
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfirebsK7-
46% · 169 games52% · 46 games
ZeusBenjimon
Zeus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMichael
51% · 36 games58% · 219 games
BaneGardick
Bane
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAccel
53% · 113 games47% · 97 games
Spirit BreakerAsao
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct29:17
Estar Backs 57%Hokori 43%
The model gave 57% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
50% · 210 games40% · 103 games
LunaLumière
Luna
Puck
PuckS1RENM
51% · 432 games52% · 127 games
ViperVitaly
Viper
Doom
DoombsK7-
54% · 199 games48% · 245 games
SlardarBenjimon
Slardar
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMichael
51% · 90 games45% · 405 games
HoodwinkAsao
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneAccel
58% · 233 games50% · 284 games
SnapfireGardick
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 58%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2