?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 1:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Michael · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Yor · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 7 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DarkMago · 6 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Mnz · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Michael · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%

Infinity Esports

Lina
Linaoften banned
Parker · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Oscar · 6 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Demon · 6 games
17%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 749 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 638 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 411 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 759 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
355 picks · 1041 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 742 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Estar Backs
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total62% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Estar Backs 62%Infinity Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 62%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1