DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LLowProfileloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
Muerta
Michael · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Prada · 2 games
Enchantress
Prada · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Frank · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Wits · 2 games
LowProfile
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
544 picks · 766 bans
Muerta
442 picks · 328 bans
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 707 bans
Bristleback
394 picks · 894 bans
Magnus
390 picks · 1049 bans
Pangolier
378 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 45%
Hero pool strength62% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:23
Estar Backs 61%LowProfile 39%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 51:21.
Game 2prediction correct14:49
Estar Backs 61%LowProfile 39%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 54:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 61%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2