Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Sin Compromisowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Doomoften banned
Frank · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Prada · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 3 games
Chen
Prada · 3 games
Enchantress
Prada · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Team Sin Compromiso
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Genek · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 4 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Oracleoften banned
Panda · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Clockwerk
Panda · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
539 picks · 614 bans
Ringmaster
474 picks · 240 bans
Jakiro
463 picks · 431 bans
Terrorblade
384 picks · 797 bans
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 530 bans
Ancient Apparition
353 picks · 800 bans
Tusk
344 picks · 303 bans
Shadow Shaman
334 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Team Sin Compromiso
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:18
Estar Backs 34%Team Sin Compromiso 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Sin Compromiso — the game was taken by Team Sin Compromiso in 20:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinLumière
MedusaParker
TuskPrada
Sand KingDarkMago
45% · 91 game
Dark SeerSacred
50% · 169 games
TinyGenek
60% · 74 games
Naga SirenStingeR
Game 2prediction correct10:30
Estar Backs 39%Team Sin Compromiso 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Sin Compromiso — the game was taken by Team Sin Compromiso in 26:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterLumière
MeepoParker
Naga SirenPrada
PangolierDarkMago
little data
Legion CommanderSacred
50% · 32 games
SilencerStingeR
46% · 142 games
TuskGenek
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sin Compromiso · 77%
Series resultTeam Sin Compromiso 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2