Estar Backs vs Universitario Esports — prediction DS-ОК 23 · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Estar Backswin 2:0

series probability

74%26%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Universitario Esportsloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Muerta

Michael · 7 games

57%

Beastmasteroften banned

Frank · 5 games

60%

Bloodseekeroften banned

Mnz · 4 games

50%

Gyrocopter

Parker · 4 games

75%

Techies

Michael · 4 games

50%

Vengeful Spirit

StingeR · 4 games

50%

Dark Willow

Michael · 3 games

67%

Hoodwink

Michael · 3 games

100%

Universitario Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

378 picks · 352 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

364 picks · 586 bans

57%

Mars

352 picks · 542 bans

55%

Techies

352 picks · 276 bans

52%

Vengeful Spirit

345 picks · 336 bans

51%

Batrider

330 picks · 684 bans

57%

Hoodwink

320 picks · 193 bans

51%

Tiny

312 picks · 327 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%

Hero pool strength53% Estar Backs

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total74% Estar Backs

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:11

Estar Backs 62%Universitario Esports 38%

The model gave 62% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 28:19.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo