PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Michael · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Prada · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Frank · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Muerta
Michael · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
YamSun · 16 games
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 9 games
Muerta
Bignum · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
YamSun · 7 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
525 picks · 712 bans
Clockwerk
486 picks · 563 bans
Batrider
480 picks · 605 bans
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 566 bans
Gyrocopter
440 picks · 796 bans
Magnus
435 picks · 968 bans
Lion
395 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:28
Estar Backs 50%Wildcard Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 1:06:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMnz
AbaddonFayde
MagnusLeostyle
TinyRCY
EnigmaFrank
TidehunterYamSun
EnchantressPrada
MuertaBignum
RikiMichael
PhoenixSpeeed
Game 2prediction missed22:10
Estar Backs 49%Wildcard Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 28:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMnz
MagnusRCY
LycanFrank
BroodmotherSpeeed
PuckLeostyle
DawnbreakerFayde
DoomMichael
ClockwerkBignum
BatriderPrada
PugnaDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 54%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2