IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Эстонияloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Грецияwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Эстония
No games played over 6 months.
Греция
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
342 picks · 122 bans
Lina
268 picks · 483 bans
Nyx Assassin
255 picks · 526 bans
Luna
251 picks · 345 bans
Mars
248 picks · 415 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 311 bans
Terrorblade
232 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Эстония
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Греция
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:37
Эстония 44%Греция 56%
The model gave 56% on Греция — the game was taken by Греция in 30:52.
Game 2prediction correct
Эстония 44%Греция 56%
The model gave 56% on Греция — the game was taken by Греция.
Model check result
Model favoriteГреция · 56%
Series resultГреция 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2