Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Bane
Jubei · 10 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Lion
Cys · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Rises · 4 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Banesignature
Overlom · 11 games
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
red2 · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Overlom · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
TingleK1ng · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
Snapfire
bgod · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
464 picks · 275 bans
Mars
403 picks · 534 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 444 bans
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 490 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 539 bans
Kunkka
279 picks · 506 bans
Tiny
271 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
268 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 60%
Hero pool strength66% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:39
Eternity 37%5RATFORCESTAFF 63%
The model gave 63% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 34:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyCarJua
Chaos Knightdnm
Ember SpiritP1
Storm Spiritred2
51% · 127 games
Sand KingLil_Nick
41% · 89 games
HoodwinkGiant
52% · 99 games
Ioalbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct1:12
Eternity 36%5RATFORCESTAFF 64%
The model gave 64% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 14:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenCarJua
Naga Sirendnm
Queen of PainP1
Puckred2
60% · 66 games
Death ProphetLil_Nick
46% · 59 games
PangolierGiant
50% · 47 games
Ogre Magialbinozebra
Game 3prediction correct
Eternity 28%5RATFORCESTAFF 72%
The model gave 72% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 72%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3