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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fart Studioswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eternity

Rubick
Rubick
Aretes · 3 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Moonlight · 3 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
CarJua · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Moonlight · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skyward · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
blessed kid · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Aretes · 2 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
rayy · 2 games
0%

Fart Studios

Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Newsham · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Newsham · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 5 games
80%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Newsham · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
554 picks · 365 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 499 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 427 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
378 picks · 453 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
363 picks · 356 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
330 picks · 170 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
295 picks · 186 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
295 picks · 718 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 61%
Hero pool strength64% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:41
Eternity 37%Fart Studios 63%
The model gave 63% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCarJua
55% · 75 games48% · 142 games
BloodseekerBSJ
Bloodseeker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendblessed kid
41% · 55 games58% · 115 games
PudgeiAnnihilate
Pudge
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSkyward
45% · 240 games57% · 265 games
BeastmasterJenkins
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireAretes
44% · 222 games57% · 58 games
Dark WillowNewsham
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMoonlight
44% · 222 games52% · 234 games
Treant ProtectorSonic
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct18:23
Eternity 38%Fart Studios 62%
The model gave 62% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 42:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCarJua
48% · 174 games48% · 136 games
BloodseekerBSJ
Bloodseeker
Death Prophet
Death Prophetblessed kid
49% · 334 games48% · 151 game
InvokeriAnnihilate
Invoker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSkyward
45% · 51 game49% · 225 games
Dragon KnightJenkins
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireMoonlight
47% · 278 games59% · 325 games
MiranaNewsham
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressAretes
54% · 200 games52% · 200 games
Treant ProtectorSonic
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 71%
Series resultFart Studios 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2