Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Happy Sealswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Bane
Jubei · 10 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
Lion
Cys · 5 games
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Snapfire
Cys · 5 games
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
465 picks · 312 bans
Queen of Pain
425 picks · 526 bans
Weaver
378 picks · 565 bans
Mars
367 picks · 515 bans
Kunkka
296 picks · 493 bans
Spirit Breaker
282 picks · 519 bans
Wraith King
257 picks · 344 bans
Snapfire
256 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Happy Seals
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Happy Seals
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Eternity 43%Happy Seals 57%
The model gave 57% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 30:20.
Game 2prediction correct28:60
Eternity 43%Happy Seals 57%
The model gave 57% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 43:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteHappy Seals · 57%
Series resultHappy Seals 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2