Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KBU.USloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Bane
Jubei · 10 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Lion
Cys · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Rises · 4 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 269 bans
Mars
397 picks · 545 bans
Weaver
331 picks · 425 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 555 bans
Queen of Pain
305 picks · 467 bans
Tiny
294 picks · 316 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 372 bans
Kunkka
272 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:37
Eternity 41%KBU.US 59%
The model gave 59% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 37:26.
Game 2prediction missed29:23
Eternity 41%KBU.US 59%
The model gave 59% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Eternity in 37:24.
Game 3prediction missed31:15
Eternity 41%KBU.US 59%
The model gave 59% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Eternity in 26:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 59%
Series resultEternity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3