Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 5 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Cys · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
CarJua · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
high_shaggy · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
P1 · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Lucky Bird
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 1 game
Iooften banned
FrancisLee · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Mirana
FrancisLee · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
FrancisLee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 444 bans
Mars
489 picks · 695 bans
Bane
462 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 525 bans
Sand King
410 picks · 561 bans
Storm Spirit
403 picks · 646 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 614 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 78%
Hero pool strength64% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:11
Eternity 45%Lucky Bird 55%
The model gave 55% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Eternity in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMoonlight
MedusaRises
Ogre Magirayy
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
46% · 89 games
HoodwinkFrancisLee
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Eternity 44%Lucky Bird 56%
The model gave 56% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GrimstrokeMoonlight
Templar AssassinRises
Jakirorayy
PuckBlackSoul
52% · 38 games
TuskFrancisLee
Game 3prediction correct
Eternity 42%Lucky Bird 58%
The model gave 58% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 58%
Series resultLucky Bird 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3