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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eternity

Mirana
Mirana
FrancisLee · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
100%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 4 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 3 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
33%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
FrancisLee · 3 games
33%

simply TOOBASED

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 968 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
418 picks · 586 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 679 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 595 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 284 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
278 picks · 180 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 229 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
266 picks · 385 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:29
Eternity 28%simply TOOBASED 72%
The model gave 72% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 36:36.
Game 2prediction missed21:19
Eternity 28%simply TOOBASED 72%
The model gave 72% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by Eternity in 34:40.
Game 3prediction correct14:31
Eternity 28%simply TOOBASED 72%
The model gave 72% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 39:40.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 72%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3