Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Hoodwink
Moonlight · 2 games
Rubick
Aretes · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
rayy · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Skyward · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
islA · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
blessed kid · 1 game
Team DogChamp
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 8 games
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
471 picks · 311 bans
Tusk
465 picks · 458 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 404 bans
Mirana
332 picks · 328 bans
Treant Protector
321 picks · 372 bans
Snapfire
281 picks · 146 bans
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 643 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength64% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:40
Eternity 38%Team DogChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 21:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierblessed kid
Queen of PainYuma
BloodseekerCarJua
Ember SpiritRCY
Dark SeerSkyward
BroodmotherITALIANO GANGSTA
RubickAretes
Silenceryarintheslayer
Spirit BreakerMoonlight
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct13:36
Eternity 38%Team DogChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerCarJua
Templar AssassinYuma
MarciSkyward
InvokerRCY
Pangolierblessed kid
TuskITALIANO GANGSTA
SnapfireMoonlight
Techiesyarintheslayer
ClockwerkAretes
Treant ProtectorBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 72%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2