Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Undyingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Bane
Jubei · 6 games
Lion
Jubei · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 4 games
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
FrancisLee · 4 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
337 picks · 480 bans
Snapfire
290 picks · 167 bans
Bane
279 picks · 218 bans
Weaver
272 picks · 601 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 715 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 393 bans
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 304 bans
Disruptor
215 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Undying
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total92% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Eternity 8%Team Undying 92%
The model gave 92% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 24:13.
Game 2prediction correct13:31
Eternity 8%Team Undying 92%
The model gave 92% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 29:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 92%
Series resultTeam Undying 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2