Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
EU Rejectsloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KKEKWaitwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EU Rejects
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
TANNER · 3 games
Visageoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Chessie · 2 games
Chenoften banned
j4 · 2 games
Hoodwink
TANNER · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Shad · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Shad · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
5up · 2 games
KEKWait
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 452 bans
Mars
497 picks · 694 bans
Bane
460 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 536 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 639 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 625 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% KEKWait
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% KEKWait
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:32
EU Rejects 42%KEKWait 58%
The model gave 58% on KEKWait — the game was taken by EU Rejects in 52:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackShad
DawnbreakerInfernal
DazzleChessie
TinyAdzantick
ClockwerkTANNER
Viperj4
Game 2prediction correct12:23
EU Rejects 45%KEKWait 55%
The model gave 55% on KEKWait — the game was taken by KEKWait in 24:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaAdzantick
TimbersawInfernal
Naga SirenShad
Dragon KnightChessie
HoodwinkTANNER
Marcij4
Model check result
Model favoriteKEKWait · 60%
Series resultKEKWait 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2