Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Euronics Gaming
Necrophosoften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Focus · 1 game
Spirit Breaker
Qupe · 1 game
Slot Seekers
Kunkkaoften banned
ntakii · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Flash · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
264 picks · 322 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 375 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 566 bans
Void Spirit
228 picks · 248 bans
Lion
225 picks · 102 bans
Lina
220 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 270 bans
Bane
211 picks · 133 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Euronics Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Slot Seekers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:27
Euronics Gaming 50%Slot Seekers 50%
The model gave 50% on Slot Seekers — the game was taken by Euronics Gaming in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinFocus
MedusaCoblackk
TinyMo13ei
Puckntakii
Spirit BreakerQupe
PangolierZipZaper
54% · 27 games
BaneFlash
Game 2prediction correct21:39
Euronics Gaming 47%Slot Seekers 53%
The model gave 53% on Slot Seekers — the game was taken by Slot Seekers in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinFocus
BloodseekerCoblackk
TimbersawMo13ei
Windrangerntakii
RubickQupe
MarsZipZaper
59% · 27 games
Ogre MagiFlash
Game 3prediction correct30:33
Euronics Gaming 48%Slot Seekers 52%
The model gave 52% on Slot Seekers — the game was taken by Slot Seekers in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaFocus
LunaCoblackk
Storm SpiritMo13ei
Ember Spiritntakii
MiranaQupe
PangolierZipZaper
58% · 36 games
Ogre MagiFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteSlot Seekers · 53%
Series resultSlot Seekers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3