?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 31 game
39%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 30 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 26 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 25 games
72%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 23 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 23 games
65%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 48 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 43 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 36 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 34 games
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 33 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 32 games
66%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 29 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
493 picks · 325 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 980 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 927 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 855 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1009 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:16
Evil Geniuses 45%9Pandas 55%
The model gave 55% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPakazs
47% · 43 games54% · 106 games
Dragon KnightRAMZES666
Dragon Knight
Lycan
LycanWisper
50% · 79 games60% · 181 game
Broodmotherkiyotaka
Broodmother
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderChris Luck
44% · 56 games53% · 98 games
VisageMieRo
Visage
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
48% · 140 games46% · 82 games
PudgeAntares
Pudge
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
43% · 222 games51% · 73 games
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed36:19
Evil Geniuses 45%9Pandas 55%
The model gave 55% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
54% · 293 games50% · 160 games
Templar AssassinRAMZES666
Templar Assassin
Snapfire
SnapfireChris Luck
47% · 392 games47% · 305 games
DoomMieRo
Doom
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderWisper
48% · 96 games51% · 601 game
Rubickkiyotaka
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressPanda
50% · 350 games50% · 57 games
ClinkzAntares
Clinkz
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
51% · 89 games52% · 97 games
Shadow DemonSolo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 58%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2