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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 31 game
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 27 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 27 games
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%

Azure Ray

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 9 games
67%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silencersignature
天命 · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
690 picks · 473 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
615 picks · 646 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
569 picks · 1113 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 494 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1240 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
485 picks · 1053 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 686 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 923 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:31
Evil Geniuses 67%Azure Ray 33%
The model gave 67% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
46% · 154 games60% · 103 games
Medusalou
Medusa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastWisper
52% · 199 games54% · 141 game
Void SpiritSomnus
Void Spirit
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendChris Luck
48% · 106 games40% · 45 games
Legion CommanderChalice
Legion Commander
Pugna
PugnaPanda
49% · 155 games50% · 237 games
Enchantressfy
Enchantress
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMatthew
45% · 167 games54% · 255 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed33:46
Evil Geniuses 65%Azure Ray 35%
The model gave 65% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 55:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPakazs
46% · 72 games51% · 149 games
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierChris Luck
48% · 251 game50% · 98 games
ViperChalice
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
50% · 60 games55% · 247 games
Storm SpiritSomnus
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickMatthew
41% · 294 games57% · 169 games
Spirit Breakerfy
Spirit Breaker
Silencer
SilencerPanda
49% · 175 games54% · 189 games
Pugna天命
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 79%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2