ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 628 bans
Bane
449 picks · 292 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 489 bans
Sand King
397 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 785 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:27
Evil Geniuses 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 41:18.
Game 2prediction missed30:22
Evil Geniuses 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 31:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Accuracy by game0 of 2