Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 1:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Eternityloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
Eternity
Lion
YamSun · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
EternaLEnVy · 5 games
Mirana
FrancisLee · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
396 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
371 picks · 605 bans
Lion
367 picks · 190 bans
Grimstroke
363 picks · 366 bans
Void Spirit
318 picks · 509 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 680 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 225 bans
Snapfire
264 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 26%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 90%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:0
Series predictioncorrect