ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 4 games
Rubick
Thiolicor · 4 games
Tusk
Thiolicor · 4 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
441 picks · 996 bans
Void Spirit
412 picks · 607 bans
Mars
363 picks · 643 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 633 bans
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 279 bans
Rubick
263 picks · 176 bans
Phoenix
260 picks · 372 bans
Wraith King
258 picks · 432 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:19
Evil Geniuses 56%Fnatic 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Fnatic in 26:02.
Game 2prediction missed37:20
Evil Geniuses 56%Fnatic 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Fnatic in 50:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 56%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2