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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infamous.Rloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 15 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Oscar · 12 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Panda · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 11 games
73%

Infamous.R

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
793 picks · 560 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 567 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 431 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 735 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
416 picks · 821 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
408 picks · 289 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 853 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:22
Evil Geniuses 92%Infamous.R 8%
The model gave 92% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 41:31.
Game 2prediction missed
Evil Geniuses 92%Infamous.R 8%
The model gave 92% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Infamous.R.
Game 3prediction missed27:39
Evil Geniuses 92%Infamous.R 8%
The model gave 92% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 54:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 92%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3