The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 9 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
310 picks · 177 bans
Mars
284 picks · 407 bans
Lina
282 picks · 540 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 92 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 371 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
230 picks · 327 bans
Tidehunter
215 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:37
Evil Geniuses 73%Invictus Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 48:42.
Game 2prediction missed22:17
Evil Geniuses 73%Invictus Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 35:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 73%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2